{"id":4451,"date":"2023-05-30T19:52:48","date_gmt":"2023-05-30T19:52:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/?p=4451"},"modified":"2023-05-30T19:56:38","modified_gmt":"2023-05-30T19:56:38","slug":"umrtnost-2020-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/cs\/blog\/2023\/05\/30\/uebersterblichkeit-2020-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Nadm\u011brn\u00e1 \u00famrtnost 2020 - 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"<span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Doba \u010dten\u00ed<\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 2<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minuty<\/span><\/span>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u00e9ma nadm\u011brn\u00e9 \u00famrtnosti je st\u00e1l\u00fdm zdrojem kontroverz\u00ed. Nyn\u00ed studie, kterou napsali Christof Kuhbandner a Matthias Reitzner a kter\u00e1 byla zve\u0159ejn\u011bna 23. kv\u011btna 2023 \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cureus.com\/articles\/149410-estimation-of-excess-mortality-in-germany-during-2020-2022#!\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Odhad nadm\u011brn\u00e9 \u00famrtnosti v N\u011bmecku v obdob\u00ed 2020-2022<\/a>\" (v angli\u010dtin\u011b) bylo p\u0159ezkoum\u00e1no sedmi odborn\u00edky v obdob\u00ed od 19. dubna do 22. kv\u011btna 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shrnut\u00ed obsahu v n\u011bm\u010din\u011b je k dispozici na t\u00e9to str\u00e1nce. <a href=\"https:\/\/kinderrechtejetzt.de\/uebersterblichkeitsartikel-peer-reviewed\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Webov\u00e9 str\u00e1nky<\/a> k dispozici.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201e<em>V\u00fdsledky ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee pozorovan\u00fd po\u010det \u00famrt\u00ed v roce 2020 se bl\u00ed\u017eil o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9mu po\u010dtu ve vztahu k empirick\u00e9 sm\u011brodatn\u00e9 odchylce. Do\u0161lo k p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 4 000 nadm\u011brn\u00fdch \u00famrt\u00ed. Naproti tomu pozorovan\u00fd po\u010det \u00famrt\u00ed v roce 2021 byl o dv\u011b empirick\u00e9 sm\u011brodatn\u00e9 odchylky vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd po\u010det a v roce 2022 dokonce v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dty\u0159ikr\u00e1t vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e empirick\u00e1 sm\u011brodatn\u00e1 odchylka. Celkov\u011b tak v roce 2021 do\u0161lo k p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed po\u010dtu \u00famrt\u00ed o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 34 000 a v roce 2022 o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 66 000, co\u017e v obou letech znamen\u00e1 kumulativn\u011b 100 000 \u00famrt\u00ed. Vysok\u00e1 nad\u00famrtnost v letech 2021 a 2022 byla zp\u016fsobena p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1r\u016fstem po\u010dtu \u00famrt\u00ed ve v\u011bkov\u00fdch skupin\u00e1ch mezi 15 a 79 lety a kumulovala se a\u017e od dubna 2021. Podobn\u00fd pr\u016fb\u011bh \u00famrtnosti byl pozorov\u00e1n i u mrtv\u011b narozen\u00fdch d\u011bt\u00ed, kdy ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed do\u0161lo k n\u00e1r\u016fstu o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 9,4% a ve \u010dtvrt\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2021 o 19,4% ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s p\u0159edchoz\u00edmi roky.<\/em>\u201c ...<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"Z\u00e1v\u011bry: V t\u00e9to studii byla pou\u017eita nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00ed metoda pojistn\u00e9 matematiky k odhadu o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho po\u010dtu \u00famrt\u00ed ze v\u0161ech p\u0159\u00ed\u010din a n\u00e1r\u016fstu \u00famrtnosti ze v\u0161ech p\u0159\u00ed\u010din pro pandemick\u00e9 roky 2020 a\u017e 2022 v N\u011bmecku. V roce 2020 se pozorovan\u00fd po\u010det \u00famrt\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u011b bl\u00ed\u017eil o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9mu po\u010dtu, ale v roce 2021 byl pozorovan\u00fd po\u010det \u00famrt\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b nad o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdm po\u010dtem v \u0159\u00e1du dvojn\u00e1sobku empirick\u00e9 sm\u011brodatn\u00e9 odchylky a v roce 2022 nad o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdm po\u010dtem dokonce v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dty\u0159n\u00e1sobku empirick\u00e9 sm\u011brodatn\u00e9 odchylky. Anal\u00fdza m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed nad\u00famrtnosti v z\u00e1vislosti na v\u011bku uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee za nad\u00famrtnost v letech 2021 a 2022 m\u016f\u017ee vysok\u00e1 nad\u00famrtnost od jara 2021. Anal\u00fdza po\u010dtu mrtv\u011b narozen\u00fdch d\u011bt\u00ed uk\u00e1zala podobn\u00fd pr\u016fb\u011bh \u00famrtnosti jako u v\u011bkov\u00e9 skupiny 15 a\u017e 80 let.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jako v\u00fdchoz\u00ed bod pro dal\u0161\u00ed zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed vysv\u011btluj\u00edc\u00ed tyto vzorce \u00famrtnosti jsme porovnali nadm\u011brnou \u00famrtnost s po\u010dtem hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fdch \u00famrt\u00ed na COVID-19 a po\u010dtem o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed proti COVID-19. To vede k n\u011bkolika otev\u0159en\u00fdm ot\u00e1zk\u00e1m, z nich\u017e nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je kovariance mezi nadm\u011brnou \u00famrtnost\u00ed, po\u010dtem \u00famrt\u00ed na COVID-19 a o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00edm proti COVID-19.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Doba \u010dten\u00ed<\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 2<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minuty<\/span><\/span>T\u00e9ma nadm\u011brn\u00e9 \u00famrtnosti je st\u00e1l\u00fdm zdrojem kontroverz\u00ed. Nyn\u00ed byla studie \"Odhad nadm\u011brn\u00e9 \u00famrtnosti v N\u011bmecku v obdob\u00ed 2020-2022\" (v angli\u010dtin\u011b), kterou napsali Christof Kuhbandner a Matthias Reitzner a kter\u00e1 byla zve\u0159ejn\u011bna 23. kv\u011btna 2023, p\u0159ezkoum\u00e1na sedmi odborn\u00edky v obdob\u00ed od 19. dubna do 22. kv\u011btna 2023. Shrnut\u00ed obsahu v n\u011bm\u010din\u011b je k dispozici na t\u011bchto webov\u00fdch str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch...&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/cs\/blog\/2023\/05\/30\/uebersterblichkeit-2020-2022\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">\u010c\u00edst d\u00e1le \"<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Nadm\u011brn\u00e1 \u00famrtnost 2020 - 2022<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[628],"tags":[1620,1621,1618,1619,1622,7,9],"class_list":["post-4451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-corona","tag-covid19","tag-impfungen","tag-kuhbandner","tag-reitzner","tag-sterblichkeit","tag-todesfaelle","tag-uebersterblichkeit"],"modified_by":"Achim Goerner","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4451"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4451\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}