{"id":4451,"date":"2023-05-30T19:52:48","date_gmt":"2023-05-30T19:52:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/?p=4451"},"modified":"2023-05-30T19:56:38","modified_gmt":"2023-05-30T19:56:38","slug":"mirtingumas-2020-2022-m","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/lt\/blog\/2023\/05\/30\/uebersterblichkeit-2020-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Mirtingumo pervir\u0161is 2020-2022 m."},"content":{"rendered":"<span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Skaitymo laikas<\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 2<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minut\u0117s<\/span><\/span>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Perteklinio mirtingumo tema yra nuolatinis gin\u010d\u0173 \u0161altinis. Dabar Christofo Kuhbandnerio (Christof Kuhbandner) ir Matthiaso Reitznerio (Matthias Reitzner) tyrimas, paskelbtas 2023 m. gegu\u017e\u0117s 23 d. \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cureus.com\/articles\/149410-estimation-of-excess-mortality-in-germany-during-2020-2022#!\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Perteklinio mirtingumo Vokietijoje 2020-2022 m. \u012fvertis<\/a>\" (angl\u0173 kalba) per\u017ei\u016br\u0117jo septyni ekspertai nuo 2023 m. baland\u017eio 19 d. iki gegu\u017e\u0117s 22 d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Turinio santrauk\u0105 vokie\u010di\u0173 kalba galima rasti \u0161ioje svetain\u0117je <a href=\"https:\/\/kinderrechtejetzt.de\/uebersterblichkeitsartikel-peer-reviewed\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Svetain\u0117<\/a> galima \u012fsigyti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201e<em>Rezultatai rodo, kad pasteb\u0117tas mir\u010di\u0173 skai\u010dius 2020 m. buvo artimas tik\u0117tinam skai\u010diui, atsi\u017evelgiant \u012f empirin\u012f standartin\u012f nuokryp\u012f. \u012evyko ma\u017edaug 4 000 perteklini\u0173 mir\u010di\u0173. Prie\u0161ingai, 2021 m. steb\u0117tas mir\u010di\u0173 skai\u010dius buvo dviem empiriniais standartiniais nuokrypiais didesnis u\u017e tik\u0117tin\u0105 skai\u010di\u0173, o 2022 m. - net daugiau nei keturis kartus didesnis u\u017e empirin\u012f standartin\u012f nuokryp\u012f. I\u0161 viso 2021 m. mir\u010di\u0173 perteklius yra apie 34 000, o 2022 m. - apie 66 000 mir\u010di\u0173, tod\u0117l abiem metais susidar\u0117 bendras 100 000 mir\u010di\u0173 perteklius. Didel\u012f mirtingumo pervir\u0161\u012f 2021 m. ir 2022 m. daugiausia l\u0117m\u0117 mir\u010di\u0173 skai\u010diaus padid\u0117jimas 15-79 met\u0173 am\u017eiaus grup\u0117se ir jis susikaup\u0117 tik nuo 2021 m. baland\u017eio m\u0117n. Pana\u0161us mirtingumo modelis buvo stebimas ir negyv\u0173 gimusi\u0173 k\u016bdiki\u0173 atveju - 2021 m. antr\u0105j\u012f ketvirt\u012f j\u0173 padaug\u0117jo apie 9,4%, o ketvirt\u0105j\u012f ketvirt\u012f - 19,4%, palyginti su ankstesniais metais.<\/em>\u201c ...<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"I\u0161vados: \u0160iame tyrime, taikant naujausi\u0105 aktuarinio mokslo metod\u0105, buvo \u012fvertintas tik\u0117tinas mir\u010di\u0173 nuo vis\u0173 prie\u017eas\u010di\u0173 skai\u010dius ir mirtingumo nuo vis\u0173 prie\u017eas\u010di\u0173 padid\u0117jimas pandemijos laikotarpiu 2020-2022 m. Vokietijoje. 2020 m. steb\u0117tas mir\u010di\u0173 skai\u010dius buvo labai artimas tik\u0117tinam skai\u010diui, ta\u010diau 2021 m. steb\u0117tas mir\u010di\u0173 skai\u010dius gerokai vir\u0161ijo tik\u0117tin\u0105 skai\u010di\u0173, ma\u017edaug dvigubai vir\u0161ydamas empirin\u012f standartin\u012f nuokryp\u012f, o 2022 m. steb\u0117tas mir\u010di\u0173 skai\u010dius vir\u0161ijo tik\u0117tin\u0105 skai\u010di\u0173 net daugiau nei keturis kartus, palyginti su empiriniu standartiniu nuokrypiu. Nuo am\u017eiaus priklausomo m\u0117nesinio mirtingumo pertekliaus analiz\u0117 parod\u0117, kad nuo 2021 m. pavasario didelis mirtingumo perteklius l\u0117m\u0117 2021 ir 2022 m. mirtingumo pertekli\u0173. Negyv\u0173 gimusi\u0173 k\u016bdiki\u0173 skai\u010diaus analiz\u0117 atskleid\u0117 pana\u0161\u0173 mirtingumo d\u0117sningum\u0105 kaip ir 15-80 met\u0173 am\u017eiaus grup\u0117je.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nor\u0117dami prad\u0117ti tolesnius tyrimus, paai\u0161kinan\u010dius \u0161iuos mirtingumo d\u0117sningumus, palyginome mirtingumo pervir\u0161\u012f su registruot\u0173 mir\u010di\u0173 nuo COVID-19 atvej\u0173 skai\u010diumi ir skiepijim\u0173 nuo COVID-19 skai\u010diumi. D\u0117l to kyla keletas atvir\u0173 klausim\u0173, i\u0161 kuri\u0173 svarbiausias yra mirtingumo pertekliaus, mir\u010di\u0173 nuo COVID-19 ir skiep\u0173 nuo COVID-19 skai\u010diaus kovariacija.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Skaitymo laikas<\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 2<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minut\u0117s<\/span><\/span>Perteklinio mirtingumo tema yra nuolatinis gin\u010d\u0173 \u0161altinis. Dabar Christofo Kuhbandnerio (Christof Kuhbandner) ir Matthiaso Reitznerio (Matthias Reitzner) parengt\u0105 ir 2023 m. gegu\u017e\u0117s 23 d. paskelbt\u0105 studij\u0105 \"Mirtingumo pertekliaus Vokietijoje vertinimas 2020-2022 m. laikotarpiu\" (angl\u0173 kalba) nuo baland\u017eio 19 d. iki gegu\u017e\u0117s 22 d. per\u017ei\u016br\u0117jo septyni ekspertai. Turinio santrauk\u0105 vokie\u010di\u0173 kalba galima rasti \u0161ioje svetain\u0117je...&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/lt\/blog\/2023\/05\/30\/uebersterblichkeit-2020-2022\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Skaityti daugiau \"<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Mirtingumo pervir\u0161is 2020-2022 m.<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[628],"tags":[1620,1621,1618,1619,1622,7,9],"class_list":["post-4451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-corona","tag-covid19","tag-impfungen","tag-kuhbandner","tag-reitzner","tag-sterblichkeit","tag-todesfaelle","tag-uebersterblichkeit"],"modified_by":"Achim Goerner","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4451"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4451\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csiag.eu\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}